Fertility rates have collapsed in many countries, exemplified by Mexico's drop from seven children per woman in 1970 to 1.6 in 2023. The IHME projects that by 2050 more than three-quarters of countries will face comparable below-replacement fertility. The decline has occurred faster and in places that were previously unexpected. Falling fertility threatens innovation, productivity and the ability of working-age populations to support growing older cohorts. Broader ripple effects include diminished military strength, reduced geopolitical influence, and lower investment in green technology. Some policy interventions can help, but even effective measures may not fully reverse the trend.
In 1970, a woman in Mexico might have expected to have seven children, on average. By 2014, that figure had fallen to around two. As of 2023, it was just 1.6. That means that the population is no longer making enough babies to maintain itself. Mexico is not alone: countries around the world are witnessing falling fertility rates. Exceptions are few.
The numbers are clear. What's uncertain is how problematic this global baby bust' will be, and how nations should respond. In economies that have been built around the prospect of steady population growth, the concern is over future slumps in innovation and productivity, as well as having too few working-age citizens to support a growing number of older people. Researchers warn of ripple effects, from weakened military power and less political influence for countries with lower fertility rates, to fewer investments in green technology.
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