US intelligence sees direct attacks by Iran on oil tankers as greater risk than mines

"US intelligence reporting sees direct attacks by Iran as the greatest threat to oil tankers going through the strait of Hormuz, the key transit passage for the global oil trade that has been effectively shut down by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran."

"The more potent threat remains the risk of a direct attack by Iran at scale for instance, a swarm of one-way attack drones or a series of shore-to-ship ballistic missiles, according to two people familiar with the intelligence who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details."

"The problem comes because just one missile or drone slipping through defenses could decimate or sink a tanker, giving Iran leverage even as the US launched what a senior administration official described as its largest attack against Iran in the conflict to date."

US intelligence identifies direct Iranian attacks as the primary threat to oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil trade route. The Trump administration conducted strikes against 16 mine-laying vessels near the strait, targeting potential Iranian mining operations. However, intelligence officials assess that coordinated attacks using drone swarms or shore-to-ship ballistic missiles pose greater risks than mines. A single missile or drone penetrating US naval defenses could sink a tanker, providing Iran strategic leverage. Even with Navy destroyer escorts and risk insurance, protecting tanker crews remains challenging, as intercepting every incoming missile is uncertain. Mines present fewer complications since the US prepared defensive measures in advance.

Read at www.theguardian.com