"The National Intelligence Council's assessment in February concluded that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in Iran, even if the current leadership was killed, according to the two people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified report."
"The intelligence assessment concluded that no one powerful or unified opposition coalition was poised to take over in Iran if the leadership was killed, according to the people familiar with the report. It determined that Iran's establishment would attempt to preserve continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed."
"The determination undercuts the administration's assertion that it can complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, perhaps in a matter of weeks. The administration has asserted that it was not seeking regime change in Iran, even as President Donald Trump considers whom he would like to see lead the country."
A February National Intelligence Council assessment determined that neither limited airstrikes nor prolonged military campaigns would likely result in regime change in Iran, even if current leadership was eliminated. The assessment found no unified opposition coalition capable of assuming power if Iran's Supreme Leader was killed. Instead, Iran's establishment would work to preserve continuity of government. This intelligence contradicts the administration's assertion that military objectives could be completed quickly, despite claims of not seeking regime change. Following the war's opening strikes, Iran's clerics selected Mojtaba Khamenei, the former leader's son with more hardline views, as the new Supreme Leader, demonstrating institutional resistance to external pressure.
#iran-military-intervention #regime-change-assessment #us-intelligence-analysis #geopolitical-strategy
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