US and China provoke sharp fall in global outlook for renewable power

"Lowered support means capacity now expected to grow to no more than 4,600GW by 2030, 900GW lower than 2024 estimate. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has scaled back its forecast for renewable power growth to 2030, citing weaker outlooks in the United States and China. The Paris-based agency now projects total renewable capacity will reach 4,600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, down from 5,500GW in last year's forecast, according to a report released on Tuesday."

"The early phase-out of federal tax incentives for renewable energy in the US, laid out in President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, is a key driver of the lowered estimate. Challenges in China, where the government is shifting from guaranteed electricity prices for renewable energy projects to competitive auctions that constrain profits, are also a factor, said the IEA."

"It is not all bad news, however, the IEA said. While growth in China and the US may be slowing, there is a more positive outlook elsewhere. The agency pointed to India, which is on track to meet its 2030 target and become the second-largest growth market for renewables, with capacity set to rise by 2.5 times in five years. It also raised forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa by 25 percent, while the outlook for capacity in Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain was also raised."

The International Energy Agency projects total renewable capacity will reach 4,600 GW by 2030, down from 5,500 GW, reducing expected growth by 900 GW. The shortfall makes the goal of tripling renewable energy use by 2030 unlikely. Key drivers include the early phase-out of US federal tax incentives under President Donald Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill and China's shift from guaranteed renewable electricity prices to competitive auctions that constrain profits. India is set to expand capacity 2.5 times in five years and become a major growth market. Forecasts were raised for the Middle East and North Africa and for several European markets; solar accounted for about 80 percent of recent renewable growth, while offshore wind outlooks were revised lower.

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