Trump Is Kicking the Economy While It's Down

"Original estimates had 2025 new-job numbers at 584,000, which was just tepidly okay. That was revised to a net number of only 116,000. Across the past two years, the revisions mean that the American economy has about a million fewer jobs than previously reported."

"When Iran closed off the Strait of Hormuz, it shut out roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. Oil infrastructure across the Persian Gulf has faced attacks, threatening the supply at its source. Americans are already watching prices climb at gas stations, but that's only the beginning."

"Oil prices affect nearly everything Americans eat, wear, and touch. Our staff writer Rogé Karma lays out how the shock of historically high oil prices could push an already fragile economy into recession."

Recent economic data revisions have significantly altered the outlook for the U.S. economy. Job creation estimates for 2025 were drastically reduced from 584,000 to 116,000, and cumulative revisions over two years show roughly one million fewer jobs than initially reported. Simultaneously, economic growth has reached its weakest levels since the early pandemic period, while inflation remains elevated at two-year highs. These challenges are compounded by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil infrastructure threaten approximately one-fifth of global oil supply. Rising oil prices directly impact consumer costs across food, clothing, and goods, creating recession risks for an already fragile economy.

Read at The Atlantic