"Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, said in a note on Tuesday the latest data from China "provided no evidence to support the notion that there will be a substantial increase in state purchases to meet the 12 million metric ton commitment for calendar year 2025 as stated by the White House." China's soybean processors have purchased about 40 million tons from South America this season and "have zero financial incentive" to buy more U.S. soybeans, he added."
"Such purchases would have to come from state buyers for China's reserve, but there's very little indication that they are on track to buy 12 million tons by year's end or 25 million next year, Suderman warned. In fact, China's oversupply of South American soybeans has slashed prices more than 20% from an April peak in key coastal Chinese regions, according to Mysteel data cited by Reuters."
With roughly six weeks left in the year, China has not increased purchases of U.S. soybeans despite White House statements about large near-term and multi-year buying commitments. China placed no orders this harvest season amid the trade war and turned to Brazil and Argentina, importing about 40 million tons from South America. Processors face no financial incentive to buy pricier U.S. soybeans, so any additional U.S. purchases would need to come from state reserve buys. Heavy South American inflows created a domestic glut that has cut prices by over 20% in key coastal regions.
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