Low-cost drones have transformed the Ukraine battlefield by spotting enemy troops, foiling maneuvers, and destroying armored vehicles with inexpensive equipment. Russia and Ukraine have ramped up production into the millions, and plans exist to expand output further. NATO and Western defense firms are adapting training and designing systems informed by battlefield uses. Rapid technological shifts and the swift spread of countermeasures can render current drones obsolete and devalue mass-produced stockpiles. Refitting outdated systems often creates more problems than replacing them. Prudence in large-scale procurement and focus on adaptable, upgradeable capability can reduce the risk of stranded assets.
In Ukraine, low-cost drones have upended the battlefield - spotting enemy troops, foiling maneuvers, and wrecking tanks with gear sometimes worth just a few hundred dollars. Russia and Ukraine are both betting big on this inexpensive technology. Ukraine said that it made 2.2 million drones last year and aims to make 4 million this year, and Russian President Vladimir Putin said in April that Russia made more than 1.5 million drones last year. And there are plans to expand that.
The West is watching closely. NATO militaries are implementing drone warfare training, and defense firms are designing new systems modeled on Ukraine's battlefield successes. Rapid shifts in drone technology and the swift emergence of countermeasures might make the drones of today obsolete tomorrow. Mass-producing drone technology too soon risks leaving militaries with stockpiles of gear that quickly lose value as technology and countermeasures evolve.
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