The US's Nuclear Arms Treaty With Russia Is About to Lapse. What Happens Next?

"For most of us, Friday, February 6, 2026, is likely to feel no different than Thursday, February 5. It will be a work or school day for many of us. It might involve shopping for the weekend or an evening get-together with friends, or any of the other mundane tasks of life. But from a world-historical perspective, that day will represent a dramatic turning point, with far-reaching and potentially catastrophic consequences."

"It's hard to imagine today, but 50 years ago, at the height of the Cold War, the United States and Russia (then the Soviet Union) jointly possessed 47,000 nuclear warheads-enough to exterminate all life on Earth many times over. But as public fears of nuclear annihilation increased, especially after the near-death experience of the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, the leaders of those two countries negotiated a series of binding agreements intended to downsize their arsenals and reduce the risk of Armageddon."

"That would then be followed in June 1979 by SALT-II (signed by both parties, though never ratified by the US Senate) and two Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START I and START II), in 1991 and 1993, respectively. Each of those treaties reduced the number of deployed nuclear warheads on US and Soviet/Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and long-range bombers."

On February 6, 2026, binding U.S.–Russian arms-control treaties expire, ending 54 years of legal limits and allowing both countries to expand nuclear warheads without treaty constraints. During the Cold War peak, the United States and the Soviet Union jointly held about 47,000 warheads, creating existential risk that spurred public fear after the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Negotiations since the late 1960s produced SALT I, SALT II, START I, and START II, which reduced deployed warheads on ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers. With treaty constraints gone, both powers appear positioned to increase their arsenals, raising the risk of renewed nuclear competition.

Read at The Nation