The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is working. Here is why

"Every aspect of Iran's ability to project regional power is being successfully degraded. Two weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the dominant narrative has settled into a comfortable groove: The United States and Israel stumbled into a war without a plan. Iran is retaliating across the region. Oil prices are surging, and the world is facing another Middle Eastern quagmire."

"When you look at what has actually happened to Iran's principal instruments of power—its ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear infrastructure, its air defences, its navy and its proxy command architecture—the picture is not one of US failure. It is one of systematic, phased degradation of a threat that previous administrations allowed to grow for four decades."

"I have spent my academic career studying how states authorise the use of force through intelligence institutions, and what I see in the current campaign is a recognisable military operation proceeding through identifiable phases against an adversary whose capacity to project power is collapsing in real time."

Despite widespread criticism characterizing recent military operations as unplanned and destabilizing, the campaign represents a systematic, phased degradation of Iran's military capabilities. Iran's ballistic missile launches have declined over 90 percent from initial levels. The operation targets Iran's principal instruments of power: ballistic missile arsenal, nuclear infrastructure, air defenses, navy, and proxy command structure. While the conflict imposes real costs on Middle Eastern populations, critics focus on immediate expenses rather than strategic outcomes. The author, with experience in state security institutions and Middle Eastern conflicts, argues the military operation follows recognizable phases against an adversary whose power projection capacity is collapsing.

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