The US Air Force's small, aging fleet is losing its edge over China

"The US Air Force's fleet of aircraft is steadily shrinking and aging, raising concerns as pressure mounts for American airpower to be ready for future wars. Budget cuts, decades of heavy combat use, aircraft losses to retirement, and slow or stalled modernization programs have left the Air Force with a fleet that is smaller and older than it once was. These are problems leaders acknowledge as they confront China's expanding military and the possibility of conflict. A new report from the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, authored by retired Air Force Col. John Venable and analyst Joshua Baker, traces how decades of changes have shrunk the Air Force's fleet from its Cold War strength, while also warning that the US now faces a tougher threat environment from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea with growing gaps in readiness. "While capacity, capability, and readiness deficiencies exist in the Army, Navy, Marine Corps, and Space Force," the authors note, "shortfalls are particularly acute in the US Air Force, which is now the smallest, arguably the oldest, and unquestionably the least ready in its history.""

"Since the end of the Cold War, the number of fighter jets and other aircraft ready to fly has decreased severely. In 1987, the US had around 4,253 fighters, 393 bombers, and 309 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance aircraft. There were 1,941 combat-ready fighters in 81 active-duty squadrons either based in the European theater or capable of rapidly deploying there were a fight ever to break out. As of 2024, those numbers are just a fraction of Cold War sizes. Over three decades, the Air Force's inventory has dropped to 2,026 fighters, 140 bombers, and 297 ISR platforms."

The US Air Force fleet has shrunk and aged significantly due to budget cuts, heavy combat use, retirements, and delayed modernization. Fighter, bomber, and ISR inventories have declined sharply from Cold War peaks to much lower 2024 levels, reducing deployable forces. Readiness and capability gaps are widening as threats from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea intensify. Shortfalls are particularly acute in the Air Force, making it smaller, older, and less ready. Expanded mission demands strain an increasingly limited and aging force, complicating deterrence and preparation for high-end conflict.

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