"One night in early July, Maryan Abdikadir Geedi decided it was finally time to abandon her small shop in the town of Moqokori in the Hiiraan region of Somalia. Though she had heard of the rapid recent gains made by al-Shabaab, the Islamist militant movement, the 46-year-old had hoped to stay. Since getting married in 2013, Geedi had seen control over Moqokori change hands repeatedly."
"In recent weeks, frontlines have stabilised, though government security forces are still on the defensive. There is a construction boom in Mogadishu, and few now believe the capital will be seized by the militants. Though the US has intensified airstrikes against al-Shabaab and other militant groups in Somalia, Washington has signalled it will not send back the hundreds of special forces withdrawn during Donald Trump's first term."
"Instead, countries such as Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Uganda have committed troops, training or air support over recent years, while the African Union mission continues to field thousands of soldiers. Egypt is now sending a large contingent too. Without this support, government forces would collapse, analysts say. It's a strategic stalemate, said Samira Gaid, regional security analyst with Balqiis, a Mogadishu-based thinktank."
Residents fled towns as al-Shabaab launched an offensive in February, sweeping through Somalia and reclaiming territories lost in 2023. Fighting reached within 40km of Mogadishu in July, prompting fears the capital might fall and causing civilian displacement. Frontlines later stabilised while government forces remained on the defensive and a construction boom continued in Mogadishu. The United States increased airstrikes but declined to redeploy withdrawn special forces. Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Uganda, Egypt and the African Union provided troops, training or air support. Analysts warn government forces would collapse without that external support, creating a strategic stalemate.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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