The dilemmas over Cuba's future: Regime change or negotiated transition

A rapid sequence of U.S. moves toward Cuba includes a CIA chief visit to Havana, a U.S. indictment of Raul Castro, and an aircraft carrier deployment in Caribbean waters near the island. The situation creates a dilemma about whether these steps will trigger a rupture and regime change or produce a transition under maximum U.S. pressure while preserving parts of the revolution’s image through a negotiated pact. Venezuela is cited as a precedent where political pressure led to criminal charges and then U.S. forces removed Maduro. Analysts caution that Cuba will not follow the same path because the power structure inside Castroism differs and there is no direct equivalent to Delcy Rodriguez. The Castros have maintained control for over 60 years with limited adjustments.

"A shadow play whose central dilemma, for now, is whether all this will lead to a rupture a toppling of the Castroism and regime change or to a transition triggered by maximum U.S. pressure but staged as a negotiated pact to preserve at least some of the revolution's heroic image. The precedent in Venezuela looms ever larger. First came political pressure, then criminal charges, and finally, U.S. forces entered Caracas and flew president Nicolas Maduro by helicopter to a prison in New York."

"Since the start of the year, Delcy Rodriguez has served as the president, effectively overseen by the White House, following a visit from CIA director John Ratcliffe, who made clear that she could remain in office as long as she followed Washington's directives. It's a sequence that is now unfolding at an even faster pace in Cuba, including the aircraft carrier stationed in the Caribbean as a warning."

"Despite the parallels, analysts are cautious about predicting a similar outcome. For Michael Shifter, senior fellow at the Washingtonbased think tank Inter-American Dialogue, it is unlikely they will follow that route because they will not find a Delcy Rodriguez in Cuba. It is a very different power structure. They will have to look for people within Castroism, without reaching a regime change, without a sharp rupture."

"Unlike the Chavismo political movement, which evolved largely into a system of competing clans, the Castros have steered the country with an iron hand for more than 60 years, allowing only slight adjustments in the most difficult mom"

Read at english.elpais.com