The 2026 National Defense Strategy: No Surprises but Plenty of Mandate

"OPINION - The 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS) follows closely the 2025 National Security Strategy, as it should. It also falls in line with the Department of Defense's narrative and the actions they have taken regarding priorities. The NDS has four lines of effort: Defending the U.S. Homeland - Homeland defense is the top priority, with the Western Hemisphere elevated above other regions. This includes border security, open lines of transportation (Panama Canal and Greenland), counter-narcotics operations, and countering adversary influence."

"It would have been easy to call out Ukraine's successes against Russia as the example for how the strategy forecasts the behaviors it seeks from our allies. It also characterizes Russia as a persistent but manageable threat, in effect relegating Russia at the end of the day as inconsequential to the US. This underestimates Moscow's ability to cause havoc beyond Ukraine."

"The approach focuses on deterrence through military strength rather than confrontation, aiming to prevent Chinese dominance while avoiding conflict. The strategy emphasizes expanded military-to-military communication with Beijing to reduce conflict risks. It still cites China's predatory behaviors and makes clear that China is the second highest priority. ...this Strategy will ensure that we see things and the choices we need to make clearly."

The 2026 National Defense Strategy aligns with the 2025 National Security Strategy and Department of Defense priorities. It lists four lines of effort and places homeland defense as the top priority, elevating the Western Hemisphere above other regions. Homeland priorities include border security, secure transportation routes (Panama Canal and Greenland), counter-narcotics operations, and countering adversary influence. The strategy omits explicit commitments to Taiwan and makes no mention of Ukraine and excludes climate change as a security threat. The document characterizes Russia as a persistent but manageable threat and emphasizes deterrence of China through military strength, expanded military-to-military communications, and avoidance of direct confrontation. It calls for increased burden-sharing with allies.

Read at The Cipher Brief