Somalia's 2026 election risks a legitimacy crisis

"The federal government's unilateral pursuit of power, cloaked in the language of democratic reform, threatens to trigger a legitimacy crisis and undo decades of political gains and international investment. Universal suffrage is an ideal that all Somalis share."

"Pursuing universal suffrage without political consent, institutional readiness, or minimum security guarantees does not deepen democracy or sovereignty; it concentrates power in the hands of incumbents while increasing the risk of fragmentation and parallel authority. Instead of addressing these constraints through consensus, the government is engaged in a power grab, deploying the rhetoric of universal suffrage. It has unilaterally changed the constitution, which forms"

"It has also enacted self-serving laws governing electoral processes, political parties, and the Election and Boundaries Commission. Moreover, the government has appointed 18 commissioners, all backed by the ruling Justice and Solidarity Party (JSP). Meanwhile, Somaliland announced its secession in 1991 and has been seeking recognition for the last three and a half decades. Most of Somalia's national opposition, along with the leaders"

Somalia's political transitions over 25 years depended on international engagement, pressure, and mediation to preserve fragile settlements. The federal government is pursuing unilateral reforms framed as democratic change, risking a legitimacy crisis and reversing decades of political gains and investment. Universal suffrage is widely desired but faces deep political disagreement, persistent security challenges, an expiring government mandate, and financial constraints that make timely implementation nearly impossible. Moving toward one-person-one-vote without political consent, institutional readiness, or minimum security guarantees concentrates power with incumbents and increases risks of fragmentation and parallel authority. Several federal member states and opposition groups have rejected the government's approach and formed an alternative council.

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