Somalia is the missing pillar of Red Sea and Gulf of Aden stability

"Global markets rarely reveal their vulnerabilities quietly. They do so when shipping lanes come under threat, energy prices surge, or supply chains fracture. Few regions illustrate this reality more starkly than the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, which are now among the world's most contested maritime corridors. What unfolds along these waters no longer remains local. It shapes economic security across the Arab world and far beyond."

"For decades, Somalia was viewed primarily through the lens of conflict and fragility. That narrative no longer reflects today's reality. The country is undergoing a consequential transition, moving away from prolonged instability, rebuilding state institutions, and re-emerging as a sovereign actor with growing regional relevance. Situated at the intersection of the Arab world, Africa, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Aden, Somalia is not peripheral to regional stability; it is central to it."

"With the longest coastline in mainland Africa, Somalia lies adjacent to the Bab al-Mandeb passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the wider Indian Ocean. A substantial share of global maritime trade and energy shipments passes through this corridor. Disruptions along Somalia's coast, therefore, have immediate implications for shipping reliability, energy markets, and food security issues of direct concern to Gulf states and Arab economies."

Maritime trade routes through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden face rising contestation, creating risks for global markets, energy prices, and supply chains. These corridors influence economic security across the Arab world and beyond. Somalia is transitioning from prolonged instability toward rebuilding state institutions and reasserting sovereignty with growing regional relevance. Somalia's geography, including the longest coastline in mainland Africa and adjacency to the Bab al-Mandeb passage, places it at the center of maritime flows. A substantial share of global trade and energy shipments passes nearby, so coastal disruptions affect shipping reliability, energy markets, and food security. For Arab states, Somalia functions as a front-line partner; stability there helps contain threats before they reach the Arabian Peninsula, including violent extremism.

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