Sanctions on Iran have been a spectacular strategic failure for the West

"In the decades since the end of the Cold War, a powerful myth has taken hold in the West. It is the myth of the smart sanction, a foreign-policy tool that is supposed to be a clean, precise, and humane alternative to war. The belief is that by skillfully targeting a hostile regime's key revenue sources and finances, one can bring it to heel without harming its citizens. This is a dangerous delusion."

"As our recently published research on Iran reveals, the sanctions regime on Iran was far from being a surgical strike; instead, it was a sledgehammer that smashed the very group that represents the best hope for a more moderate and stable future the middle class. In this sense, the devastation of the Iranian middle class constitutes a major strategic failure for the West."

"The rise of Iran's modern middle class was a century-long process. It began under the Pahlavi dynasty with the emergence of a secular, professional class of civil servants, professionals, and managers who built the country's modern infrastructure, funded by oil rents. After the 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic continued to expand the ranks of the middle class, lifting millions of previously marginalised families from poverty into a new world of education and opportunity."

Sanctions on Iran operated not as targeted, surgical measures but as a destructive force that devastated the country's modern middle class. The Iranian middle class developed over a century, expanding under the Pahlavi dynasty and growing further after 1979 through education and economic opportunity. That middle class served as the foundation for reformist politics, mass protests, entrepreneurial innovation, and a growing tech sector including firms like Digikala and Snapp. The erosion of this social and economic layer weakened prospects for moderation and stability and represents a significant strategic failure of sanctions as a foreign-policy instrument.

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