Sale of nuclear secrets? Invasion of Taiwan? What the tea leaves reveal about the purge in China's military leadership

"Beyond China, however, a parallel machine was immediately activated to decipher what had happened, given the few existing clues. Some jokingly call this exercise, common among those who follow China's opaque politics, reading tea leaves: a kind of divinatory art, carried out by an army of sinologists, academics, and intelligence analysts, similar to the Kremlinologists who once scrutinized the Soviet Union, but dedicated in this case to decoding the movements of the Chinese Communist Party and its armed wing, the People's Liberation Army (PLA)."

"Why has a close associate of Xi Jinping suddenly been stripped of his position? What does it say about the power struggle in the Asian superpower? And about the modernization of its armed forces? What are the implications for a potential conflict over Taiwan? The blow to the top of the military establishment, announced as a new anti-corruption case, has heightened the sense of bewilderment at what many analysts interpret as a purge unprecedented since Mao Zedong's outbursts against his military leadership in the 1970s."

Xinhua announced that Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were placed under investigation for alleged serious violations of discipline and the law, without providing facts or details. The case has been suppressed in domestic television and social media, leaving official channels silent. International analysts have attempted to decode the events, likening the exercise to 'reading tea leaves' and comparing it to Kremlinology. The removals raise questions about internal power struggles, a possible purge reminiscent of Mao's actions against military leaders, the trajectory of PLA modernization, and potential implications for a confrontation over Taiwan. Zhang served as first vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, second only to Xi Jinping.

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