"Vladimir Putin has staved off additional U.S. sanctions, for now, as he bought more time to prosecute his war on Ukraine by meeting with President Donald Trump in Alaska last week, sparking a flurry of diplomatic activity as European allies try to forge security guarantees for Kyiv. But time may not be Russia's ally as its economy comes under increased strain."
""So it's too early to adopt a more optimistic view on the Russian economy, which we think is teetering on the brink of a recession," Tatiana Orlova, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said in a note on Monday. Since the Alaska meeting produced nothing that would move the needle, she reaffirmed her forecast for Russian GDP growth to slow sharply this year to just 1.2% from 4.3% in 2024."
Vladimir Putin temporarily avoided additional U.S. sanctions after meeting President Donald Trump in Alaska, prompting renewed diplomatic activity as European allies seek security guarantees for Kyiv. No progress emerged toward removing existing sanctions or restoring economic cooperation. Economic indicators point to growing stress from falling energy revenues, high interest rates, and the worst harvest in 17 years, increasing debt and banking concerns. Officials and economists warn of a heightened risk of a technical recession in coming quarters. Oxford Economics forecasts Russian GDP growth slowing sharply to about 1.2% this year and stagnating below 1% by 2026–2027.
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