"Global oil markets stabilised to a certain extent as traders could remain cautious in the face of the uncertainty around the geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe. While potential progress in the peace talks could fuel downside risks for the market, the lack of clarity around the stance of the belligerents could leave the market on edge. In this regard, a peace deal could induce an easing of sanctions on the Russian energy sector and drive higher volumes into the market, which could weigh on prices."
"However, a failure to strike a lasting peace could lead to additional tightening on Russian crude exports, which could limit downside risks at a time when the market is expecting an oil glut. The IEA now projects that global supply growth, led by the US, Brazil and other non-OPEC producers, will outpace demand into 2026, leaving the market with a sizeable surplus and rising inventories. The surplus could potentially reach around 4 mb/d by 2026."
Global oil markets have stabilised as traders remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe. Potential progress in peace talks could ease sanctions on the Russian energy sector and increase export volumes, exerting downward pressure on prices. Conversely, failure to secure lasting peace could trigger additional tightening of Russian crude exports, limiting downside risk despite expectations of an oil glut. The IEA projects that supply growth led by the US, Brazil and other non‑OPEC producers will outpace demand into 2026, creating a sizable surplus and rising inventories, potentially around 4 mb/d by 2026. Short‑term US inventory draws and expectations of Fed easing could cushion prices, but the fundamental bias remains bearish and uncertainty high.
Read at London Business News | Londonlovesbusiness.com
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