""OPEC+ caught the market off guard today - instead of pausing, the group signalled ambition with a production hike. The barrels may be small, but the message is big," said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy."
""OPEC+ is prioritising market share even if it risks softer prices," he said."
""In reality, the actual production boost will be far smaller, given capacity limits and the compensation mechanism. But perception often matters more than physical barrels.""
Eight OPEC+ V8 members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from next month. The group had already raised output by 2.2 million bpd in recent months and indicated the new incoming cycle could eventually add up to 1.65 million bpd. The move prioritises regaining market share even at the risk of softer prices. Global oil trades around $65–$70 per barrel after a 12 percent drop this year. Prior cuts by OPEC+ totalled almost six million bpd. Capacity limits and compensation mechanisms could reduce the actual additional barrels, and the decision raises unity concerns because some members rely on higher prices for revenue.
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