Nigeria's new 'insurgency corridor' evolves

"Over the past few years, however, the borderlands across Nigeria's North West and North Central regions have become a melting pot for Sahelian and local jihadists. The area, known as the Kebbi-Kainji-Borgu triangle, straddles the Nigerian states of Kebbi, Sokoto, Niger and part of Kwara in central Nigeria. It stretches across the border into Niger's Dosso region and Benin's Alibori department."

"In what appears to be a new phase of expansion for Sahelian jihadists into coastal West Africa, groups like the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) have established their presence in the area. The move follows sustained military pressure amid growing rivalry between the groups in the Liptako-Gourma tri-state area where the borders of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger meet."

"The actors include homegrown jihadist groups such as the Sadikuled faction of Boko Haram, as well as Ansaru and the Mahmudawa group whose leaders were arrested last year, alongside criminal gangs known locally as bandits. Together, these groups are believed to number in the hundreds of thousands, raiding villages and killing or displacing communities across the region."

Violent extremism in Nigeria is shifting geographically from the Northeast to the borderlands of the North West and North Central regions. The Kebbi-Kainji-Borgu triangle, spanning Nigerian states and extending into Niger and Benin, has become a convergence zone for Sahelian jihadists and local militant groups. Major actors include JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province, alongside homegrown factions like Sadikuled Boko Haram, Ansaru, and Mahmudawa, plus criminal gangs collectively numbering hundreds of thousands. This expansion represents a new phase of Sahelian jihadist movement southward toward coastal West Africa, driven by military pressure and inter-group rivalries in the Liptako-Gourma region.

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