Myanmar marks bitter five-year anniversary of 2021 coup

""The early-2024 speculation about regime collapse is clearly all in the rearview mirror," said Anthony Davis, an analyst with the Janes defense and security publications. Over the past year, the military has reclaimed key towns and trade routes in the northeast that had fallen to a trio of armed groups. It has also rebuilt battalions depleted by death and desertion and conducted phased elections, which concluded on Sunday. "They are in the best position since the coup, said Kyaw Htet Aung, head of conflict, peace and security research at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar (ISP-Myanmar)."

"Before and after the coup, Beijing cultivated ties with both the Tatmadaw and the armed ethnic minority groups that dominate the country's rugged borderlands with China, helping to arm them both. But after a major offensive by three of those groups in late 2023 and early 2024 that routed the military in the northeast, Beijing shifted sharply toward the junta."

Five years after the Tatmadaw toppled a democratically elected government on February 1, 2021, Myanmar remains engulfed in a bloody civil war. Over the past year, the military reclaimed key towns and trade routes in the northeast, rebuilt battalions depleted by death and desertion, and conducted phased elections that concluded on Sunday. Analysts say the junta is in its strongest position since the coup. Beijing cultivated ties with both the Tatmadaw and ethnic armed groups, then shifted sharply toward the junta after a late-2023 and early-2024 offensive, pressuring groups, restricting border trade and forcing ceasefires that helped stabilize the regime.

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