Markets stay calm amid Trump's gambit, but long-term risks are huge | Nils Pratley
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Markets stay calm amid Trump's gambit, but long-term risks are huge | Nils Pratley
"Why the relative calm? Well, markets have learned to live with Trumpian tariff adventures. They know the attention-grabbing initial threats do not always translate into action, at least not at the advertised level. With hindsight, Trump's liberation day last April, which did shake markets, created one of the best buying opportunities in years and 2025 as a whole was a bumper year for stock markets almost everywhere."
"More than a year into Trump's second term, market participants have become increasingly desensitised to his rhetoric and sceptical that it will feed through into action, says Jonas Goltermann, the deputy chief markets economist at the thinktank Capital Economics. Quite: markets expect Trump's 1 February deadline for the first 10% tariff to be postponed. In any case, the next step is the US supreme court's ruling on the legality of Trump's existing tariff policy."
The FTSE 100 opened above 10,000 while the chancellor left to attend the prime minister's Greenland statement. Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on eight European countries produced only a 0.4% fall in the FTSE, with European stocks doing worse, and a £7.7bn bid emerged for insurer Beazley. Markets have grown used to headline tariff threats and expect the 1 February deadline for a 10% tariff to be postponed. Anticipation of a US Supreme Court ruling on existing tariff policy adds uncertainty. Persistent complacency could amplify market reactions and raise the risk of a UK or eurozone recession if tariffs were prolonged.
Read at www.theguardian.com
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