"The first is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no intention of ending the war he started on anything other than his own terms, which have not changed since the war began. Putin wants to occupy all of Ukraine and if that is not achievable through force alone, he will do his bet to turn the remainder of Ukraine into the 21st Century version of Vichy France."
"Whatever contrary messaging Trump's hopelessly overmatched envoy Steve Witkoff may have delivered, there can no longer be any doubt in the President's mind of Putin's intentions. As Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian civilian targets throughout the period of negotiations including before and after the summit in Anchorage, Alaska, President Trump must now see clearly Putin's love of brutality and his belief that he can win this war militarily."
"It should also be clear to President Trump that his administration made a tactical and perhaps strategic blunder by granting Putin a meeting on U.S. soil with no concessions by the Russian side agreed to in advance. The U.S. move allowed Putin to end his diplomatic isolation, get a photo opportunity on U.S. soil for his constituents at home and seemingly disregard his history as an indicted war criminal."
Vladimir Putin intends to end the war on his own terms and aims to occupy all of Ukraine or impose a puppet regime on remaining territory. Russian forces continued bombing Ukrainian civilian targets before and after diplomatic talks, demonstrating reliance on military force and brutality. The U.S. granted Putin a summit on American soil without prior concessions, allowing him to break diplomatic isolation and gain photo opportunities for domestic propaganda. Russia presented the meeting as between equals despite relying mainly on a nuclear arsenal. A policy of maximum pressure, rather than unconditional meetings, remains an unpursued option to alter Russian calculations.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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