Iran's neighbours brace for fallout as war threatens new refugee crisis

"The United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, estimates that 3.2 million people have already been displaced in Iran since US-Israeli strikes began on February 28. For now, the number of people physically crossing Iran's borders remains comparatively modest. But this is what could happen next, and has put Iran's neighbours on high alert."

"The country's Red Crescent Society reports that more than 10,000 civilian sites have been damaged since the war began, including 65 schools and 32 medical facilities, while more than 1,400 people have been killed in the US-Israel attacks. Strikes have hit residential areas in Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan."

"Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at the geopolitical advisory firm Nightingale International, noted that because strikes have so far been concentrated largely on Tehran and western and southwestern Iran, other parts of the country—especially provinces bordering Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan are absorbing much of the internal displacement."

Following US-Israeli military strikes beginning February 28, Iran faces significant internal displacement with 3.2 million people already displaced according to UNHCR estimates. Over 1,400 deaths have been reported, with extensive damage to civilian infrastructure including schools and medical facilities across Tehran, Shiraz, and Isfahan. Commercial flights remain suspended due to closed airspace. Iran's seven neighboring countries—Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkey, and Turkmenistan—face mounting pressure as potential refugee destinations. Each neighbor confronts distinct political, economic, and security challenges. Internal displacement concentrates in provinces bordering Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, creating heightened concerns about cross-border refugee movements despite currently modest border crossing numbers.

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