Iran at the Breaking Point: How Afghanistan and Iraq Still Inform U.S. Strategy

"EXPERT PERSPECTIVE - Iran is experiencing its most consequential period of internal in years. Nationwide demonstrations driven by economic collapse, social grievance, and political frustration have been met with force, mass arrests, and near-total information control. The scale and coordination of the response suggest a regime that feels threatened but not unmoored, confident in its ability to absorb pressure while preventing fragmentation."

"This moment has reignited debate in Washington about escalation, leverage, and the possibility-explicit or implicit-of regime collapse. That debate is familiar. The United States has confronted similar moments before, most notably in Afghanistan and Iraq, where early assumptions about pressure, legitimacy, and endurance proved wrong. This article is not an argument for restraint or intervention. It is a warning drawn from experience: without understanding how competition unfolds below the level of open conflict - the gray zone - pressure alone does not produce favorable outcomes."

"In both cases, the decisive phase of the conflict ended early. What followed was the harder contest-one defined less by firepower and more by local power structures, informal authority, and external interference operating quietly and persistently. In Afghanistan, as I witnessed firsthand, regional actors adapted faster than Washington. Iran, Pakistan, Russia, and later China treated the conflict as a long game. They invested in relationships, cultivated influence, and positioned themselves for the post-U.S. environment years before the withdrawal."

Iran faces nationwide demonstrations fueled by economic collapse, social grievance, and political frustration, met with force, mass arrests, and near-total information control. The regime appears threatened yet capable of absorbing pressure while preventing fragmentation. Washington is debating escalation, leverage, and the possibility of regime collapse, but prior cases show early assumptions about pressure and endurance can be wrong. Rapid military defeats in Afghanistan and Iraq were followed by prolonged contests driven by local power structures, informal authority, and persistent external interference. Regional actors invested long-term, cultivating influence and positioning for post-withdrawal environments. Without understanding gray-zone competition before and after force, pressure alone fails to yield favorable outcomes.

Read at The Cipher Brief