Iran after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

"The assumption that the removal of a central figurehead will lead to a short and decisive rupture followed by a smooth transition is far from certain. In fact, Iran after Ayatollah Khamenei may not be at all what the proponents of intervention desire to see."

"The wider Middle East has three recent examples of why outside intervention is unlikely to result in a smooth transition and stability. Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya demonstrate that external military operations are followed not by rapid stabilisation, but by chaos."

"Afghanistan experienced regime change in 2001 following the US invasion; that triggered two decades of fighting and attacks on civilians. In 2021, the country saw the return of the ousted regime, but stability remains elusive."

Western interventionists argue that Iran's political repression, economic decay, and social stagnation justify external regime change despite the risks. Recent protests and media coverage lowered moral barriers to intervention, prompting US and Israeli leaders to encourage Iranian uprisings and celebrate assassinations of high-level officials. However, removing central figures does not guarantee short, decisive transitions or desired outcomes. Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya provide cautionary examples: Afghanistan's 2001 regime change triggered two decades of conflict before the ousted regime returned; Iraq experienced insurgencies and civil war following 2003 invasion; Libya collapsed into chaos after NATO intervention in 2011. These cases demonstrate that external military operations consistently produce prolonged instability rather than rapid stabilization.

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