Intel report warns large-scale war 'unlikely' to oust Iran's regime

"A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic's entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has 'only just begun.'"

"The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran's leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran's clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power."

"The prospect of Iran's fragmented opposition taking control of the country was described as 'unlikely.' The National Intelligence Council, or NIC, is composed of veteran analysts who produce classified assessments meant to represent the collective wisdom of Washington's 18 intelligence agencies."

The National Intelligence Council completed a classified assessment concluding that even extensive U.S. military operations against Iran would be unlikely to dislodge the country's established military and clerical leadership structure. The report examined succession scenarios following either targeted strikes against Iranian leaders or broader campaigns against government institutions. Intelligence analysts determined that Iran's clerical and military establishment would activate continuity-of-power protocols following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The assessment also concluded that Iran's fragmented opposition would be unlikely to assume control of the country. These findings contradict Trump administration objectives to restructure Iran's leadership and install a preferred ruler, raising questions about military campaign feasibility.

Read at The Washington Post