How Iran's power structure is handling the crisis

"In Iran today, the central question is not who will replace Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, but rather who is best positioned to decide how that transition would be managed. The question matters because, in the Islamic Republic, such a transition would not only be a constitutional issue. Above all, it would be a test of cohesion among institutions, factions, and security apparatuses."

"The first key is understanding that power in Iran functions as an arbitration system, in which ultimate authority rests on a network of formal bodies and informal centers. The Assembly of Experts has the formal role of validating the successor. But the real decision would not be made there autonomously. It would be conditioned by the balance between the Leader's Office, the security forces, the clerical apparatus, and the institutions of political arbitration."

"Ali Larijani, secretary of the National Security Council, stands out today as a particularly relevant figure not so much because of his ideological profile, but because of his functional usefulness. He is the kind of actor the system tends to reactivate when it needs to manage critical transitions and institutional coordination."

Iran's central succession question focuses not on who will replace Supreme Leader Khamenei, but on who controls the transition process. Power in Iran operates through an arbitration system combining formal institutions and informal centers. The Assembly of Experts holds formal validation authority, but real decisions depend on balance between the Leader's Office, security forces, clerical apparatus, and political arbitration institutions. This transition represents a constitutional issue and institutional cohesion test simultaneously. Ali Larijani, National Security Council secretary, emerges as a particularly relevant figure due to his functional usefulness rather than ideological profile, representing the type of actor the system reactivates during critical periods.

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