"EXPERT PERSPECTIVE / OPINION - The initial phases of the India-Pakistan conflict in May followed a familiar incremental escalatory path. But in the final phase, the Indian use of BrahMos and other missiles against multiple Pakistani air bases represented a massive change of approach. In an ongoing rivalry where the final action of the previous conflict becomes the baseline for the next clash, this carries significant risk for the future."
"The picture is still not crystal clear but enough is now known to analyse what happened and assess the implications for the future. What emerges is deeply worrying and it edges the subcontinent several steps closer to an ever more dangerous conflict, one in which the use of nuclear weapons could be contemplated. There were four distinct phases. Phase One."
The initial phases of the India-Pakistan conflict in May followed an incremental escalatory path that culminated in India employing BrahMos and other missiles against multiple Pakistani air bases, signaling a major strategic shift. Deliberate disinformation campaigns, domestic narrative management, and operational security created significant uncertainty about events that began with the Pahalgam terrorist attack on 22 April. The attackers claimed responsibility under The Resistance Front (TRF), linked to Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT). LeT and Jaish‑ul‑Mohammed (JuM) have longstanding associations with Pakistan, and Pakistan has faced accusations of sponsoring these groups while promising the United States to dismantle them. The Pahalgam strike was likely a direct response to the Baloch Liberation Army attack on the Jaffar Express on 11 March.
Read at The Cipher Brief
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