""Even in the most optimistic of these scenarios, in which flows through Hormuz recover quickly with no restrictions, U.S. retail gasoline prices are likely to face an uphill battle to return to pre-war levels until 2027," Rob Smith, the firm's director of refining and marketing, said via email."
""Oil price declines take a long time to completely filter through refining, wholesale fuel markets and eventually retail stations where drivers fill up. That's partly due to logistics, partly due to gasoline stations working through more expensive inventory and recouping the high costs they've already paid.""
""The throttled Strait has had secondary effects that tighten the global oil market and keeping prices high - which also filters down to gasoline pumps.""
Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that gas prices might not drop below $3 per gallon until next year, while President Trump suggested a quicker decline. Analysts predict slower price drops, with the potential for further spikes due to the unpredictable Iran war. S&P Global's modeling shows that even in optimistic scenarios, U.S. retail gasoline prices may struggle to return to pre-war levels until 2027. Factors such as logistics and high inventory costs contribute to the slow price recovery, compounded by reduced oil production from Persian Gulf states.
Read at Axios
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