The firing of a top U.S. federal statistician after a weak jobs report raised concerns about trust in economic data. Some countries produce unreliable or politicized economic statistics, with China cited as a notable example. China officially reported 5% GDP growth while independent estimates range lower, including 2.8% from the Rhodium Group. China paused and revised youth unemployment data after a surge to 21.3%, later reporting a lower rate after excluding students, with youth unemployment still near 18%. Economists reportedly faced pressure to soften negative assessments during economic slowdown, and data collection is difficult for large emerging economies.
There are other examples of countries with unreliable and politicized economic data-and some point to China as a cautionary tale. Officially, China's economy grew by 5% last year, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics. Some independent estimates, like those of Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, match China's official figure. Other estimates are significantly lower, like the 2.8% GDP growth calculated by the Rhodium Group, a China-focused research firm.
Statistical measures can change or disappear without explanation. In 2023, after a surge in youth unemployment to a high of 21.3%, China's statistics bureau abruptly stopped publishing the data, citing a need to tweak the measurement. A few months later, the number returned, several percentage points lower after excluding students from the measurement. (Youth unemployment stayed high, despite the change: Just under 18% of 16 to 24-year-olds were unemployed in July.)
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