Benign transition or bloody civil war: what next for Iran after the bombing?

"Piecing together what US and Israeli officials have said about the attack on Iran, its objectives appear to be to inflict maximum damage on the pillars of the country's power, specifically its nuclear and missile programmes and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The ultimate objective however, as repeatedly expressed by Donald Trump at least, is to pave the way for a popular uprising that would sweep away the cleric-led regime that has run the country for 47 years."

"Regime change appears to be an aspiration rather than a plan, leaving much to chance and factors that will be hard for any of the current protagonists to control or even predict. These are four broad scenarios that experts say are possible outcomes of this new Middle East war."

"Iran's armed forces and the IRGC lay down their arms, as demanded by Trump, the various opposition factions coalesce and agree to form an interim government, perhaps under Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the shah who ruled the country from 1941 until he was ousted by the Islamic revolution in 1979."

US and Israeli officials have coordinated attacks on Iran targeting its nuclear program, missile capabilities, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The stated ultimate objective is facilitating regime change through popular uprising against Iran's 47-year-old clerical leadership. However, regime change remains an aspiration rather than a concrete plan, dependent on unpredictable factors beyond current protagonists' control. Experts identify four possible scenarios ranging from peaceful transition to violent chaos. The most optimistic scenario involves Iran's armed forces surrendering, opposition factions uniting under exiled Reza Pahlavi to form an interim government, transferring nuclear materials and long-range missiles to US control, and granting American oil companies market access. Analysts consider this outcome unlikely based on historical precedent.

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