"Unequal dividends from decades of growth, combined with the post-pandemic erosion of state capacity, have widened the appeal of hard-line, populist responses. The danger is not only domestic: the region's drift towards militarised politics, and the open threats by the US, surface the risks of external influence, a modern rehash of the banana republic and gunboat diplomacy playbook. Taken together, these dynamics point to a dangerous convergence."
"By early 2026, the sol is widely regarded as South America's most stable currency. Yet prosperity has not translated into institutional stability: seven presidents in nine years speak to a deeper political dysfunction. The sociologist Julio Cotler has argued that Peru's elites, enriched by exports of raw materials, had scant incentives to share gains or build capable and inclusive institutions. The result is a brittle political economy, where colonial hierarchies linger,"
South America is confronting a convergence of insecurity, militarised politics and external coercion that is eroding democratic legitimacy. Armed meddling and electoral polarisation have sharpened tensions from La Paz to Quito, while major democracies prepare for elections in 2026. Unequal benefits from decades of growth and the post-pandemic weakening of state capacity have expanded support for hard-line populism. Open threats by external powers revive a modern banana republic and gunboat diplomacy dynamic. Institutional weakening, hollowed political representation and renewed external pressure reinforce one another, increasing vulnerability to domination and undermining prospects for inclusive, capable governance.
Read at www.aljazeera.com
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