"The S&P 500 has returned on average 15.5% returns per year over the last 10 years, and that just isn't sustainable, according to Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, a firm that oversees strategies for nearly $200 billion in index funds and ETFs. Prepare for measly 3% returns ahead."
"Iran isn't interested in a temporary ceasefire that would allow the U.S. and Israel to regroup and attack again, but wants guarantees that any peace deal would be permanent. It's an off-ramp, if President Trump wants it. And given that the U.S.'s allies have roundly rebuffed Trump's call for military help in the Gulf, he may be tempted to take it."
"Iran is unlike previous opponents that Trump has faced. Its 21-mile-wide chokepoint at the mouth of the Persian Gulf has no CEO to bully, no bondholder to threaten, and no shareholders to absorb the loss. The mullahs are immune to his usual leverage."
S&P 500 futures fell 0.14% before market open following a 1% gain the previous day. Asian and European markets generally advanced, though China's CSI 300 declined 0.73% and Japan's Nikkei 225 remained flat. Oil traded at $104 per barrel. Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates overseeing $200 billion in index funds and ETFs, warns that the S&P 500's recent 15.5% average annual returns over ten years are unsustainable. He projects future returns will decline to approximately 3% annually. Backchannel communications have resumed between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, suggesting potential diplomatic negotiations. Iran seeks permanent peace guarantees rather than temporary ceasefire arrangements.
Read at Fortune
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