Analysis: Why Venezuela's military holds the key to country's future
Briefly

Analysis: Why Venezuela's military holds the key to country's future
"For almost 27 years, the Venezuelan military formally known as the National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) was a firm ally to presidents Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro, as they systematically drifted from seeking an alternative to Western liberal democracy, and towards authoritarianism. The FANB helped the Venezuelan government dismantle the institutions of the previous political establishment and persecute its most fervent opponents. In exchange, the governments of Chavez and Maduro, respectively, gave more and more power to the military within Venezuelan politics, offering them ministerial positions, governorships, embassies and other leadership roles such as mayoralties or the administration of state-run enterprises."
"Now, with the abduction of Maduro by United States special forces last Saturday, the military's image as a protector of the Venezuelan state has taken a hit: The deposed president was kidnapped from the largest Venezuelan military complex, Fuerte Tiuna, in an operation that exposed the deficiencies in the FANB's military technology and defence protocols. The military faces a crucial dilemma make changes and serve as the guarantor of the deals fronted by the Donald Trump administration in the US and interim president Delcy Rodriguez in Caracas, or risk further US attacks and erosion of its power and status."
"Over the years, the FANB's influence has grown significantly, including in law enforcement supplanting, in many cases, the roles of the state and local police. This phenomenon accelerated after the presidential elections of July 28, 2024, when the then-government of Maduro faced an unprecedented legitimacy crisis amid strong accusations of widespread vote-counting fraud. A police state was established in Venezuela, in which mass surveillance of opponents moved to a new level."
The National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB) allied with Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro for nearly 27 years, facilitating a drift toward authoritarianism. The FANB dismantled prior institutions and persecuted opponents while receiving expanded political power, ministerial posts, governorships, embassies and control of state enterprises. The abduction of Maduro from Fuerte Tiuna by United States special forces exposed weaknesses in military technology and defence protocols, damaging the military's protector image. The FANB must choose between reforming and guaranteeing deals proposed by external and interim authorities or risking further attacks, loss of status and erosion of influence. Military roles increasingly supplanted civilian police and enabled a surveillance-based police state after contested 2024 elections.
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