Analysis: Why Pakistan and the Taliban won't find it easy to patch up

"The recent downward spiral in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations would have been hard to imagine when Pakistani military and civilian leaders welcomed the Taliban's return to power in Kabul in August 2021. A Taliban government, Islamabad believed, would be friendly to Pakistan and would become a bulwark against any security threats to the country. After all, Pakistan's military and intelligence services had for more than two decades supported the Afghan Taliban movement."

"Between 2001 and 2021, this meant a contradictory foreign policy. On the one hand, by supporting the United States' military intervention in Afghanistan, Pakistan recognised the US-backed governments that ruled the country. At the same time, Pakistan covertly tolerated and even enabled the resurgence of the Taliban inside Pakistani territory, which also included co-habitation with other Pakistani militant groups. Yet, that relationship has now collapsed as Pakistani airforce struck targets in Kabul for the first time ever this week."

"An apparent disconnect in their mutual expectations, and disrespect for each other's capabilities, makes it harder for them to resurrect what they once had. The Pakistani security establishment, comprised of the army and the country's powerful military intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), is responsible for devising and driving the nation's Afghan policy. Historically, the army has also exercised significant power over the civilian administrations, even when Pakistan has not been under military rule."

Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan deteriorated after Pakistan welcomed the Taliban's return to power in Kabul in August 2021, expecting a friendly government. Pakistan's military and intelligence services supported the Afghan Taliban for over two decades, producing a contradictory stance of publicly recognizing US-backed governments while covertly tolerating and enabling Taliban resurgence. The relationship collapsed when the Pakistani airforce struck targets in Kabul for the first time, revealing a disconnect in mutual expectations and disrespect for each other's capabilities. The Pakistani security establishment, led by the army and the ISI, drives Afghan policy. Pakistan has faced a surge in attacks against its security forces since 2021, with more than 2,400 deaths recorded in the first three quarters of 2025.

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