A defining moment': Trinidad and Tobago at a crossroads as oil runs out

"In 1930, Trinidad and Tobago produced more than 40% of the British empire's oil. By the 1970s, the newly independent republic was producing 278,000 barrels of crude oil a day. For a country of just 1 million people, after the collapse of its sugar and cocoa industries, oil proved to be transformative. Today, with a population of 1.5 million and oil production down to less than 54,000 barrels a day, Trinidad and Tobago is at a crossroads."

"The country's only petroleum refinery closed in 2018 due to mismanagement and declining production by the state-owned Petrotrin company. A recent analysis noted that the energy revenues plummeted 48.4% to $14.7bn (10.9bn) in the last fiscal year, while non-energy revenues grew by 26% to $32.7bn. Trinidad and Tobago's only oil refinery in 2015. The state-owned plant was closed in 2018, when local production fell so low that oil had to be imported to supply it."

"We have fallen victim to Dutch disease' a dependence on one single sector which has defined who we are from an economic and social perspective, says Indera Sagewan, an economist and director of the Caribbean Centre for Competitiveness. We have fallen victim to Dutch disease a dependence on one single sector Indera Sagewan Non-energy economic diversification is imperative as the way forward for Trinidad and Tobago."

Trinidad and Tobago transitioned from producing over 40% of the British empire's oil in 1930 to peaking at 278,000 barrels per day in the 1970s, transforming the economy after sugar and cocoa declined. Crude production has dropped to under 54,000 barrels per day and the only petroleum refinery was closed in 2018 amid mismanagement and falling state production. Energy revenues plunged 48.4% to $14.7bn while non-energy revenues rose 26% to $32.7bn. Persistent dependence on hydrocarbons (Dutch disease), underused sovereign savings, and conflicting policy choices threaten chronic low growth without rapid non-energy diversification.

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