The Nationals play in Cleveland for Memorial Day with a .500 record. An odd-numbered game implies the team will end either 28-27 or 27-28 after the matchup. The pitching staff left Atlanta with a near tie for the 25th best team ERA at 4.82, while the Braves had the best team ERA in baseball, and the Nationals won that series. The Nationals’ team ERA and FIP both equal 4.82, indicating results align with underlying performance. When FIP and ERA diverge, it suggests bad or good luck, defense, or high-leverage pitching effects. The offense leads baseball in runs scored, and the Big-5 players combine for a +6.8 impact, with season extrapolations projecting +20.4 WAR from the group.
"The Washington Nationals are in Cleveland for Memorial Day. They enter this game with a .500 record, and a math lesson says an odd numbered game like 55 cannot be evenly divided by two. Either the Nats go to their hotel tonight with a winning record or a losing record. Basically, the 27-27 Nats will either be 28-27 or 27-28 after this game. The former would be incredible for the team and the fan base."
"What is impressive is the Nats left Atlanta in a near tie for the 25th best ERA in baseball at 4.82. The Braves have the best team ERA in all of baseball and the Nats won that series. What the Nats did over the weekend is show how you beat the best teams in baseball in a playoff atmosphere. Also of note, the Nats ERA and FIP are identical at 4.82."
"FIP is lower than ERA: The pitcher is likely experiencing bad luck. For example, tough fielding, seeing-eye singles dropping in, high BABIP (batting average on balls in play), and is due for positive progression.ERA is lower than FIP: The pitcher is likely benefiting from good luck, an exceptional defensive team, or strong pitching in high-leverage situations -or- a combination of all of them and is due for negative regression.The numbers are aligned: This confirms the pitcher's actual results match their underlying skill and performance level."
"With the Nats offense leading baseball in runs scored, the Nats Big-5, the L.A.W.Y.R.'s of Lile, Abrams, Wood, Young and Ruiz have a combined +6.8. And Young and Lile are now tied for the third most valuable Nats with Wood back at the top. Since we just passed the one-third mark of the season, let's extrapolate some numbers for a full season: Wood (6.0 WAR), Abrams (5.4), Lile (3.3), Young (3.3), and Ruiz (2.4). That adds up to +20.4 for those five."
Read at TalkNats.com
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