"SpaceX generated some $15 billion revenues last year, and it's been widely reported that it booked roughly $8 billion in EBITDA. The scenario circulating widely in the media, and not refuted by Musk, shows a loss of $2.4 billion for the first 9 months of 2025. These numbers don't include interest and depreciation, the latter SpaceX's outlays for plant and equipment. Knitting this limited view of the now-united businesses, it appears likely that the current SpaceX is showing zero or even negative GAAP earnings."
"SpaceX can't be valued on its current profits, but only on its prospects from gigantic growth in the most pioneering of industries whose future trajectory is also unknowable. However, we do know two things about SpaceX that should give investors big worries about a $1.5 trillion valuation. The first: These are the ultimate in capital intensive enterprises. Musk announced SpaceX's intention to build 10,000 fully reusable Starlink rockets, each over 400 feet tall. At a cost that Payload Research estimates at $35 million each, that's $350 billion in cash."
SpaceX plans a summer IPO after merging with xAI, targeting $50 billion in capital raise and a $1.5 trillion valuation—potentially the largest IPO ever. The company generated $15 billion in revenue last year with approximately $8 billion in EBITDA, but reported a $2.4 billion loss in the first nine months of 2025. Accounting for interest and depreciation, SpaceX likely shows zero or negative GAAP earnings. The valuation cannot be justified by current profits but only by growth prospects in pioneering industries with unknowable futures. Two major concerns emerge: SpaceX's extreme capital intensity, including plans to build 10,000 fully reusable Starlink rockets at $35 million each totaling $350 billion, and xAI's expensive data center infrastructure. These factors suggest the $1.5 trillion valuation may be unrealistically high.
Read at Fortune
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