The Professor Who Tracks Every US IPO Just Issued a Warning on SpaceX: "Most of the Time, Things Don't Go According to Plan."

"“All of these companies have had a compelling story for why rapid growth and big future profits might happen. But when a company goes public at such a high valuation, lots of things have to go right,” Ritter said. “Revenue has to grow enormously, and costs have to grow more slowly. Most of the time, things don't go according to plan.”"

"“The Test: Three Mega-IPOs, Three Different Endings” Reuters chose these comps for a reason. Each priced as one of the biggest debuts of its era, each carrying a story that justified a premium. Here is the verified, dividend-adjusted total return from IPO day to May 14, 2026, alongside the S&P 500 over the same window."

"“Visa priced at $44 in March 2008, then the largest US IPO ever at $17.9 billion. Six months later, Lehman Brothers collapsed. Anyone who bought at the open got an immediate macro gut-punch. The eventual outcome was extraordinary. Visa today carries a market cap of $609 billion, a trailing P/E o”"

SpaceX is reportedly targeting a valuation of about $1.75 trillion in its planned offering. The planned debut is compared with past mega-IPOs including Alibaba, Visa, and Facebook/Meta. Jay Ritter, who maintains a comprehensive database of US IPOs, warns that high-valuation listings depend on multiple favorable outcomes. He says revenue must grow enormously while costs grow more slowly, and that plans often do not unfold as expected. The comparison set is used to test the warning against verified total returns from IPO day to May 14, 2026, measured against the S&P 500. The outcomes include generational winners and at least one painful laggard.

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