SpaceX Just Revealed the 100-Year Plan for Its Business

SpaceX targets an IPO valuation near $1.75 trillion despite roughly $18 billion in total revenue. The investment thesis depends on public investors believing in markets far beyond launches and the current Starlink subscriber base. The S-1 outlines near-term opportunities tied to Starship reaching commercial scale, including point-to-point travel, space tourism, and in-orbit manufacturing. It expects Starship V3 to carry 100 metric tons, with later versions potentially reaching 200 metric tons, and management projects a 99% or greater reduction in cost to reach orbit. Longer-term opportunities include in-orbit manufacturing, Moon passenger transport, a sustained lunar presence or gateway hub, Mars passenger and cargo transport, lunar or Martian energy production, lunar or Martian manufacturing, and asteroid mining, which are described as not existing today. Pursuing these markets requires very large capital spending on Starship R&D.

"SpaceX is targeting an IPO valuation near $1.75 trillion against total revenue of roughly $18 billion. That gap is a major part of the SpaceX investment thesis. To justify it, public investors need to believe in something far larger than today's launch business and Starlink subscriber base."

"The first tier depends on SpaceX's Starship reaching commercial scale. The filing positions point-to-point terrestrial travel, space tourism, and in-orbit manufacturing as opportunities Starship can unlock once payload economics improve. SpaceX expects Starship V3 to carry a payload of 100 metric tons, with later generations potentially reaching 200 metric tons. Management believes Starship can eventually reduce the cost to reach orbit by 99% or more relative to existing vehicles."

"The longer-dated list is where SpaceX's filing turns philosophical. The S-1 states that industries including in-orbit manufacturing, passenger transport to the Moon, an established human presence or gateway hub on the Moon, passenger and cargo transport to Mars, energy production on the Moon or Mars, manufacturing capabilities on the Moon or Mars, and asteroid mining do not exist today. That's SpaceX essentially saying, in its own prospectus, that a meaningful portion of its addressable market has yet to be invented."

"Building toward those markets demands enormous capital. SpaceX spent $3,004 million on Starship R&D in 2025 and another $930 million in Q1 2026 alone. SpaceX's Space segment posted Q1 revenue of $"

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