Job data quality questions emerged following a downward revision in nonfarm employment for June, from 147,000 to 14,000. This revision raised concerns about the impact of the new administration's policies on job creation. The historical data reveals that June's revision was exceptional, with 90% of the previously reported gain wiped out. Over 47 years, average job revisions typically show a swing of about 41,000, indicating significant fluctuations in employment reporting.
The original data suggested the new administration's unorthodox business agenda was boosting employment. The revisions raised fears that Trump's new policies are cooling hiring.
Only 13 months since 1979 had larger downward first revisions. The typical month's first revision, up or down, reflected an average swing of 41,000 job changes.
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