The ICE campaign used “shock and awe” tactics that were broader and more visible than prior enforcement, including efforts begun in 2008 under George W. Bush and continued under Barack Obama. In 86 cities with the sharpest rise in ICE arrests during the first half of 2025, about 13 jobs were lost for each excess arrest, totaling 668,000 job losses. Construction and other industries employing many undocumented migrants saw the largest impacts, while arts and entertainment also declined because businesses cut staff as raids dominated news. The study compared these cities with others without the surge, using ICE arrest data from the Deportation Data Project and employment estimates from Lightcast and federal payroll records.
"“Enforcement at this scale and speed - visible, shocking, designed to produce fear beyond the directly targeted population - destroys jobs, disrupts businesses that Americans own and run, and depresses the local economies in which Americans live and work,” Marcela Escobari, Ian Seyal and Paul Beach wrote in the report."
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