"A sweeping crackdown on immigration in President Donald Trump's second term, characterized by elevated deportations and strict new visa bans, has precipitated an 80% collapse in net immigration to the U.S., according to a new analysis by Goldman Sachs. The report, released Feb. 16, warns the dramatic contraction in the flow of foreign-born workers is fundamentally altering the nation's labor supply mathematics and lowering the threshold for job growth needed to maintain economic stability."
"The investment bank's U.S. economics team, in a report led by David Mericle, projected a precipitous drop in the arrival of new workers. While net immigration averaged approximately 1 million people per year during the 2010s, that figure fell to 500,000 in 2025 and is projected to plummet further to just 200,000 in 2026, Goldman said. That represents an 80% decline from the historical baseline,"
A sweeping crackdown on immigration during President Donald Trump's second term has caused net immigration to the U.S. to fall sharply, producing an estimated 80% collapse versus the 2010s baseline. Net arrivals declined from about 1 million per year in the 2010s to roughly 500,000 in 2025 and are projected to reach 200,000 in 2026. Elevated deportations, paused visa processing for 75 countries, expanded travel bans, and potential loss of Temporary Protected Status are constraining visa and green card inflows and reducing labor supply. Lower immigration reduces the monthly job growth needed to stabilize unemployment.
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