"Republicans held onto a reliably conservative U.S. House district in Tennessee's special election, but only after a late burst of national spending and high-profile campaigning helped them secure a margin less than half of last year's race. Even with that victory, the outcome contributed to a gloomy outlook for the party going into the 2026 midterms that will determine control of Congress."
""The danger signs are there, and we shouldn't have had to spend that kind of money to hold that kind of seat," said Jason Roe, a national Republican strategist working on battleground races next year. He said that "Democratic enthusiasm is dramatically higher than Republican enthusiasm." Republican Matt Van Epps, a military veteran and former state general services commissioner, defeated Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn by 9 percentage points on Tuesday for the seat vacated by Republican Mark Green, who retired over the summer."
A Tennessee special election produced a narrower Republican victory than the 2024 margin, with the GOP winning by 9 points versus a 21-point 2024 result. A late surge of national spending and high-profile campaigning helped secure the seat. Democratic candidates have outperformed 2024 presidential margins by an average of 16 points in comparable districts this year. Public frustration with the economy and low approval for President Trump have boosted Democratic performance. Special elections are imperfect indicators, but the trend raises concerns for Republicans who must defend more vulnerable seats in the 2026 midterm fight.
Read at Fortune
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