The nation's fiscal outlook has worsened since early 2025, with multiple policy changes driving larger deficits and rising debt. An adjusted baseline projects cumulative deficits of $22.7 trillion (6.1% of GDP), annual deficits climbing from $1.7 trillion in 2025 to $2.6 trillion in 2035, and debt held by the public rising from about 100% of GDP ($30 trillion) to 120% of GDP ($53 trillion). An alternative scenario that makes key OBBA provisions permanent, sustains tariffs losses, and maintains high interest rates projects debt at 134% of GDP by 2035 and a ten-year deficit exceeding $28.5 trillion.
"The nation's finances have deteriorated" since President Trump took office, driven by sweeping legislative and trade policy changes, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). The nonpartisan watchdog noted that the Congressional Budget Office's January 2025 budget outlook "already showed a worrisome fiscal outlook," but developments since mean a widening deficit. The adjusted baseline shows cumulative deficits are forecast to reach $22.7 trillion, amounting to 6.1% of GDP, with annual deficits climbing from $1.7 trillion in 2025 to $2.6 trillion in 2035.
Under the CRFB's Alternative Scenario-where key OBBA provisions are made permanent, tariff revenues fall due to legal setbacks, and interest rates remain elevated-debt could climb to 134% of GDP by 2035 and the 10-year deficit would exceed $28.5 trillion. Over fiscal years 2026 through 2035, net interest payments alone are set to total $14 trillion over the decade, nearly doubling from $1 trillion this year to $1.8 trillion by 2035.
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