The most vulnerable House members, a year out from 2026 elections

"With a year to go before the midterm elections, the defining political issue of 2026 is still not certain. But what is clear so far is that mid-decade redistricting will have a major impact on the House battlefield. Newly enacted maps in a handful of states have influenced where some lawmakers land on our list of the most vulnerable House incumbents a year before Election Day 2026."

"Of course, incumbents from the most evenly split and competitive House districts continue to dominate the list. But the top two spots are claimed by a pair of Democrats, Don Davis of North Carolina and Vicente Gonzalez of Texas, whose districts were made significantly redder by state Republicans after President Donald Trump called for new maps to help the GOP defend its narrow House majority next year."

"To compile this list, CQ Roll Call's campaign team relied on interviews with party insiders, district dynamics, past results, candidates' campaign finances, race ratings by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales and district-level presidential performance, as calculated by Inside Elections. We only looked at incumbents and not at open seats, which could also flip and affect party control. This month's list excludes vulnerable lawmakers from California, where the state's House map had not been finalized as of publication time."

A year before the 2026 midterms, mid-decade redistricting is reshaping the House battlefield and altering incumbent vulnerability. Newly enacted maps in several states shifted competitiveness and influenced where incumbents now stand. The most evenly split districts remain central to vulnerability assessments, while Don Davis (NC) and Vicente Gonzalez (TX) face heightened risk after their districts were made significantly redder by Republican-controlled redistricting. Evaluations considered district dynamics, past results, campaign finances, race ratings, and district-level presidential performance. Only incumbents were assessed; open seats and California’s finalized map under Proposition 50 were excluded from this vulnerability accounting.

Read at rollcall.com