"As America barrels towards a midterm with Donald Trump threatening to "nationalize" elections and deploy ICE agents to polling sites, it's easy to argue that democracy itself is at the brink. Those darkest scenarios for the future of the nation have to be entertained, even if they remain unlikely. Trump is deeply unpopular, but he's still the president, and at any given moment he can abuse his vast powers. Republicans still enable him; MAGA is far from dead."
"The gerrymandering wars, which didn't go as well as Trump hoped, ate up a great deal of attention in 2025. High profile House races, both primaries and general elections, remain sexy, and since chances of Republicans losing their majority are so clear-one major prediction market gives Democrats an 82 percent probability -much of the focus has gone to what a Democratic House majority might do in 2027. Could Trump be impeached again? How much of his agenda will be roadblocked?"
Donald Trump threatens to nationalize elections and deploy ICE agents to polling sites, creating scenarios that imperil democratic norms. Trump remains unpopular but retains extensive presidential powers, and Republican allies continue to enable MAGA. Political energy on the left centers on House races after gerrymandering dominated 2025 attention and projection markets put a strong chance on Democrats reclaiming the House. However, Senate control is the most effective defense against MAGA because it blocks appointments and protects institutions. Democrats face a perilous path to retaking the Senate in 2026 and risk repeating 2010s-era failures that allowed judicial stacking.
Read at Intelligencer
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