"The Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank, released a report on Tuesday that forecasted a $17,500 cost impact per new home as a result of the Trump Administration's tariff policy. The report used an analysis from the nonpartisan Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center to make the forecast, based on a model that predicts a $27 billion annual construction tariff impact by 2030."
"The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released data in March forecasting that tariffs would have a cost impact of $7,500 to $10,000 per single-family home. Additionally, in May, the organization released survey data revealing that builders estimate an average cost increase of $10,900 per home due to tariff actions, but 40% of respondents hadn't seen any impacts yet. NAHB hasn't released further estimates due to the uncertain climate."
Significant uncertainty around tariff policy complicates precise estimates of construction cost impacts. One model projects a $27 billion annual construction tariff impact by 2030 and a $17,500 per-new-home cost. NAHB data forecast $7,500 to $10,000 per single-family home, while a builder survey found an average estimated increase of $10,900 and noted 40% of builders had not yet seen impacts. Changing rules and model assumptions drive variation across forecasts. Individual builder estimates vary, with one large builder projecting about a $5,000 increase per home once full effects materialize.
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